BHUTAN TODAY The New Perspective
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ByYeshi Dolma
Winter has arrived later than usual across the country this year, drawing attention from local leaders who have observed unusual weather patterns in their regions. Frost, which normally appears by October, has yet to set in, with temperatures remaining mild even as November begins.
In Tang, a Gup remarked that the delayed onset of cold weather is unusual, noting the contrast with last year when frost appeared much earlier. Similar observations have been made across other high-altitude regions, where winter festivals and traditional ceremonies typically coincide with chilly temperatures, yet this year, participants have experienced relatively mild conditions.
In certain areas, however, early snowfall has already been reported. Gup Kaka from Lunana Gewog noted that while snow fell earlier than usual, it did not damage crops. In Laya, the festival season has been marked by milder weather compared to previous years, whereas in Khatoe Gewog, the conditions have mirrored those of the prior year. Across the central and eastern highlands, the onset of winter has been uneven, with some regions experiencing unseasonably warm conditions while others see early snow.
A contributing factor to these shifting weather patterns may be the prolonged rainfall that has recently affected several districts. Local authorities explained that while rainfall is not uncommon during this period, the intensity has been greater than in past years. Despite the heavier precipitation, agricultural losses have so far been limited, thanks in part to timely weather advisories disseminated through community networks. Farmers receive updates through messaging platforms coordinated by local leaders, enabling them to adjust harvest schedules and take precautions to safeguard crops.
The National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM) has confirmed that the conditions for the upcoming winter cannot be foreseen at this stage. Currently, the El Niรฑo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in a neutral state, with near-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific since March 2025. There are signs of a cooling trend suggesting a potential transition to La Niรฑa in the coming months, but this is not confirmed. Seasonal winter forecasts will be issued once global prediction centers, the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum, and other authorities confirm conditions, ensuring the public receives accurate and timely information.
La Niรฑa, the cooler phase of ENSO, has historically influenced winter weather patterns across the Himalayan region and beyond. When it occurs, it often brings colder, wetter conditions, increasing the likelihood of snowfall and frost, particularly in high-altitude areas. Conversely, El Niรฑo tends to produce milder winters with reduced precipitation. However, ENSOโs impact varies depending on other atmospheric factors, oceanic conditions, and regional climate dynamics.
The potential for a La Niรฑa event highlights important considerations for the nationโs agriculture and energy sectors, even as uncertainties persist. In mountainous regions, sudden frost or unseasonable snow can harm crops if farmers are not informed in advance. Timely forecasts and community alerts remain critical for mitigating risks. Similarly, reliance on hydropower means that any variation in precipitation can influence water flow and electricity generation. Extended periods of abnormal rainfall or drought could affect both reservoirs and energy output, highlighting the importance of readiness and adaptive strategies.
Globally, past La Niรฑa events illustrate a range of possible impacts. In Australia, strong La Niรฑa phases have caused intense rainfall and flooding, disrupting agriculture and damaging infrastructure. During the 2010-2011 La Niรฑa, southern African countries experienced widespread flooding that displaced communities and led to economic losses. In South America, some regions have faced droughts linked to La Niรฑa, affecting crop yields and food security. Even small island nations have experienced severe water shortages during La Niรฑa periods, threatening both food and livelihoods. These examples highlight the complex consequences of ENSO-driven climate events.
Climate change further complicates predictions, as warming trends can alter traditional La Niรฑa patterns. Cooler, wetter winters are no longer guaranteed, and the severity or timing of cold spells may vary unpredictably. This makes robust early warning systems, resilient infrastructure, and climate-adaptive agricultural practices more important than ever for safeguarding both energy and food security.
Historically, La Niรฑa events recur roughly every two to seven years, with several multi-year episodes, known as triple-dip La Niรฑas, recorded over the past century. Out of 20 La Niรฑa events from 1920 to 2022, half lasted multiple years. Such prolonged events can intensify flooding or drought conditions, extending risks to communities and economies. Some studies suggest that climate change could influence the frequency or intensity of these multi-year events, emphasizing the need for continuous monitoring and preparedness.
For farmers, the evolving winter conditions highlight the importance of vigilance. Early frost or snowfall can damage crops if preventive measures are not taken, and traditional seasonal knowledge may no longer provide reliable guidance. Community networks and real-time updates remain essential tools, helping farmers adjust practices and protect their livelihoods. Local authorities play a key role in disseminating forecasts and ensuring that agricultural communities are prepared for any sudden shifts in weather.
The broader implications extend to energy security as well. Hydropower generation depends on consistent water flow, and unpredictable precipitation- whether excessive rainfall or drought- can disrupt electricity production and impact revenues from energy exports. Policymakers must navigate these uncertainties carefully, balancing immediate operational decisions with long-term strategies for water and energy management.
Once seasonal winter outlooks are finalized, NCHM plans to issue advisories for local governments and the public. These advisories will provide guidance on potential cold waves, frost, and snowfall, enabling communities to implement preventive measures, adjust agricultural timelines, and prepare for extreme weather events. Early warning systems will be critical in translating forecasts into practical action for farmers, local authorities, and other stakeholders.
Lessons from other nations can inform national preparedness.
Strengthening early warning networks, investing in resilient infrastructure, and promoting climate-adaptive farming methods can help reduce vulnerability to ENSO-driven extremes. For a country reliant on hydropower and agriculture, such proactive measures are essential to minimize risk.
As this winter unfolds, uncertainty remains the defining feature. Some regions may experience unusually mild conditions, while others could see early snow or frost. The eventual influence of La Niรฑa, if it materializes, will depend on evolving climate factors that are closely monitored by national and global meteorological agencies. Communities must remain alert, responsive, and adaptable to navigate these uncertainties successfully.
Ultimately, the potential transition toward La Niรฑa serves as a reminder of the broader challenges posed by climate variability. While such events are natural and recurring, their impacts are increasingly shaped by climate change. This winter represents both a test of preparedness and an opportunity to strengthen systems that protect agriculture, energy, and public well-being. By integrating scientific forecasting, community coordination, and adaptive strategies, the nation can approach winter with resilience and foresight, safeguarding people, resources, and economic stability in the face of uncertainty.
