𝐄𝐫𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐜 𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐨𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐓𝐡𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐧 𝐍𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧’𝐬 𝐖𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐫, 𝐅𝐨𝐨𝐝, 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐄𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐲 𝐒𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲

…𝒖𝒏𝒑𝒓𝒆𝒅𝒊𝒄𝒕𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒓𝒂𝒊𝒏𝒇𝒂𝒍𝒍 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒘𝒆𝒂𝒌 𝒎𝒐𝒏𝒊𝒕𝒐𝒓𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒔𝒚𝒔𝒕𝒆𝒎𝒔 𝒓𝒂𝒊𝒔𝒆 𝒄𝒍𝒊𝒎𝒂𝒕𝒆 𝒓𝒆𝒔𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒆𝒏𝒄𝒆 𝒄𝒐𝒏𝒄𝒆𝒓𝒏𝒔

By Kinzang Lhamo

The country’s changing monsoon patterns are creating growing instability across its forests, water systems, and rural livelihoods, with scientists warning that erratic rainfall and rising temperatures could intensify floods, droughts, and landslides in the coming years.

The World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025–2029) projects wetter summers and drier winters across much of South Asia, including the country, alongside record-high near-surface temperatures and increasingly unpredictable rainfall events. This trend is expected to heighten the risk of disasters and threaten water-dependent sectors such as agriculture and hydropower.

According to the WMO, there is an 80 percent chance that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will exceed the current warmest year on record. This outlook signals more intense rainfall episodes during the monsoon, alternating with longer dry spells during winter, a pattern that has already begun disrupting livelihoods.

Farmers across the southern and central valleys report that the once-reliable monsoon now arrives in short, forceful bursts, triggering flash floods, soil erosion, and crop loss. In winter, extended dry periods reduce soil moisture and make irrigation difficult. As nearly 70 percent of the country’s farmlands remain rain-fed, smallholder farmers dependent on paddy, maize, and vegetables face mounting uncertainty.

“The weather has become so unpredictable that it is hard to know when to plant or harvest,” said Dorji, Tshogpa of Baeyul Kunzang under Chukha Dzongkhag. “Before, we grew oranges, fireball cherry peppers (Dalle Khursani), and other fruits, but now our place is no longer suitable. Sometimes rainfall comes when we don’t need it, and even our mango trees fruit on one side only.”

He added that many orange trees now shed their fruits before ripening, a sign of the stress crops are under.
Beyond agriculture, erratic rainfall is reshaping the country’s forests. Extended dry spells have made forest fires more frequent, while intense monsoon rains damage root systems and trigger landslides that uproot trees. The combination of heat and moisture stress weakens forest regeneration and reduces the carbon absorption capacity, threatening the country’s carbon-negative status. Forests that once helped stabilize local weather patterns are now among the first victims of climatic extremes.

The pattern of variability has also begun to pressure hydropower operations, which rely heavily on consistent river flow. More rainfall in short periods increases sedimentation in reservoirs and damages turbines, while prolonged dry intervals reduce electricity generation.

Adding to the challenge, the National Center for Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM) Roadmap 2024–2039 reveals that the country’s hydrological and meteorological monitoring system remains below global standards. The roadmap identifies critical data gaps that hinder accurate forecasts and effective disaster preparedness.

The current network comprises 169 meteorological stations, including 80 automatic weather stations, 20 Class A agrometeorological stations, 65 Class C climate stations, and four automatic systems for aviation. However, coverage remains inconsistent, especially in remote northern regions where most glaciers and snow-fed rivers originate. Groundwater monitoring is absent, and ambient water quality testing has yet to begin.

Only a fraction of automatic stations transmit data reliably due to communication failures, limiting the country’s capacity to forecast floods, droughts, and seasonal water availability. Smaller tributaries remain under-monitored, and there is no real-time cryosphere observation network despite the country’s dependence on glacier and snowmelt water.

The NCHM roadmap notes that while data integration into the WMO’s Global Telecommunication System has begun, only one station currently transmits automatically. It recommends aligning with WMO’s Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS) to improve compatibility with international monitoring networks.

Short-term plans include installing five new synoptic stations, five high-altitude weather stations with snow sensors, ten hydrometric stations, and one upper-air observation site. Longer-term goals focus on community-based monitoring, permafrost tracking, and the use of radar and probabilistic forecasting tools.

However, the roadmap highlights persistent barriers, including limited technical staff, budget shortages, poor connectivity, rugged terrain, and extreme weather conditions that make maintenance and expansion difficult.
To bridge these gaps, the report calls for a national water data strategy integrating meteorological, hydrological, cryosphere, and groundwater data into a centralized platform. Such integration would enable real-time data exchange, strengthen early warning systems, and support decision-making for agriculture, hydropower, and water management.
The NCHM emphasizes that building an automated, interoperable hydromet network will be essential for improving climate resilience and disaster preparedness. It argues that better data and coordination can directly support adaptation planning, energy stability, and sustainable water use.

The stakes are high. The country’s development model depends on the balance between agriculture, forestry, and hydropower, all of which are tightly linked to water and climate. Disruptions in one area quickly cascade into others, amplifying vulnerability across the board.

With WMO projections suggesting that the next five years will be the warmest period on record, the country faces an urgent test of its ability to adapt. Strengthening monitoring systems, improving forecasting capacity, and coordinating climate responses across sectors will determine whether it can withstand the era of unstable monsoons and shifting rains that now define its future.