𝐄𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐈𝐧 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐫𝐝 𝐐𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐎𝐟 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟓

…𝑮𝑫𝑷 𝒆𝒙𝒑𝒂𝒏𝒅𝒔 𝒃𝒚 5.31 𝒑𝒆𝒓𝒄𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝒚𝒆𝒂𝒓 𝒐𝒏 𝒚𝒆𝒂𝒓 𝒂𝒔 𝒔𝒆𝒓𝒗𝒊𝒄𝒆𝒔 𝒍𝒆𝒂𝒅 𝒈𝒓𝒐𝒘𝒕𝒉 𝒘𝒉𝒊𝒍𝒆 𝒊𝒏𝒅𝒖𝒔𝒕𝒓𝒚 𝒔𝒍𝒐𝒘𝒔

By Sonam Choden

The country’s economy continued to expand in the third quarter of 2025, though at a slower pace compared to the same period last year, according to the Quarterly National Accounts Statistics Bulletin released by the National Statistics Bureau (NSB).

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 5.31 percent year on year in the third quarter (Q3) 2025, marking a decline of 2.86 percentage points from the 8.17 percent growth recorded in the third quarter of 2024. The data indicates that while economic activity remained positive, the pace of expansion moderated.

At current market prices, GDP was estimated at Nu 88.35 billion, up from Nu 80.66 billion a year earlier. This represents a nominal increase of 9.54 percent, suggesting that despite slower real growth, the overall size of the economy continued to expand. The NSB noted that quarterly GDP estimates are fully consistent with the Annual National Accounts and are released within 90 days of the reference quarter to ensure timely use for policy and planning.

Among the three broad sectors, services remained the main driver of economic growth. The services sector expanded by 6.92 percent in Q3 2025, supported by stronger performance in hotels and restaurants, financial services, and transport activities. The bulletin noted that the continued recovery of tourism and related services contributed significantly to domestic demand. However, growth in the sector slowed from 9.48 percent in the same quarter of 2024, reflecting a gradual normalization following last year’s rapid rebound.

Agriculture recorded improved performance, growing by 5.30 percent compared to 2.73 percent in Q3 2024. According to the NSB, this increase was driven by higher production in both crops and livestock. The sector benefited from favorable seasonal conditions and the gradual adoption of improved farming practices across gewogs.

In contrast, the industry sector posted the weakest growth, expanding by 3.07 percent, a sharp decline from 8.26 percent in the corresponding quarter of 2024. The NSB attributed the slowdown mainly to lower electricity generation and reduced activity in manufacturing and construction. Electricity output, which carries significant weight within the industrial sector, declined partly due to seasonal factors, as production often fluctuates with changes in water levels during the monsoon period.

“The moderation in overall growth reflects transitional shifts in the industrial base and seasonal adjustments in electricity output,” the report stated.

It added that the broad based expansion across agriculture and services demonstrates the underlying resilience of the economy despite weaker industrial performance.

The sectoral composition of GDP remained broadly stable. Services accounted for 48.71 percent of total output, followed by industry at 37.11 percent and agriculture at 14.17 percent. Compared to the same period in 2024, agriculture’s share increased by 0.20 percentage points, industry’s share declined by 1.10 points, and services gained 0.90 points. These shifts indicate that growth continues to be led by services, with modest support from the primary sector.

Beyond the headline figures, the bulletin emphasized the methodological rigor used in compiling quarterly GDP estimates. The NSB stated that the estimates follow the International Monetary Fund’s 2017 Quarterly National Accounts Manual and apply the Basic Denton Method to align quarterly data with annual accounts. This approach, implemented through the International Monetary Fund’s Excel Function Proportional Benchmarking (IMF’s XLPBM) Excel tool, ensures that short term economic movements remain consistent with long term national benchmarks.
Although the overall pace of growth moderated, the NSB highlighted that the economy remains on a sustained recovery path following several years of global and domestic challenges. Growth during the quarter was supported by stronger domestic consumption, a rebound in tourism related services, and stable agricultural output.

The Bureau cautioned, however, that weaker performance in industry accentuates the need for continued efforts to diversify production and improve productivity in manufacturing and energy related activities.

Looking ahead, the economic outlook will depend on how effectively growth is balanced across major sectors. Maintaining competitiveness in services, enhancing agricultural efficiency, and strengthening industrial capacity will be critical to sustaining inclusive and durable growth. The NSB noted that consistent methodology and timely dissemination of data will continue to play an important role in supporting evidence based policy decisions and national development planning.

The third quarter performance underlines that economic progress is not defined solely by growth rates. Long term development will depend on building an economy that is balanced, resilient, and capable of supporting sustained improvements in livelihoods and national stability.