𝐁𝐡𝐮𝐭𝐚𝐧 𝐅𝐚𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐑𝐢𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐓𝐡𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐭 𝐀𝐬 𝐆𝐥𝐨𝐛𝐚𝐥 𝐂𝐚𝐫𝐛𝐨𝐧 𝐒𝐢𝐧𝐤𝐬 𝐖𝐞𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐧

…𝒘𝒆𝒂𝒌𝒆𝒏𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒏𝒂𝒕𝒖𝒓𝒂𝒍 𝒔𝒊𝒏𝒌𝒔 𝒘𝒐𝒓𝒍𝒅𝒘𝒊𝒅𝒆 𝒄𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒕𝒆 𝒏𝒆𝒘 𝒗𝒖𝒍𝒏𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒕𝒊𝒆𝒔 𝒇𝒐𝒓 𝒕𝒉𝒆 𝒄𝒐𝒖𝒏𝒕𝒓𝒚’𝒔 𝒇𝒐𝒓𝒆𝒔𝒕𝒔 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒍𝒐𝒏𝒈 𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒎 𝒄𝒍𝒊𝒎𝒂𝒕𝒆 𝒈𝒐𝒂𝒍𝒔

By Kinzang Lhamo

The country’s standing as the world’s only carbon negative nation is facing growing pressure as global greenhouse gas concentrations reach record levels. The World Meteorological Organization’s Greenhouse Gas Bulletin 2025 reports that atmospheric carbon dioxide rose to 423.9 parts per million in 2024, the highest level ever recorded. The bulletin warns that global carbon sinks such as forests and oceans are weakening due to rising temperatures, prolonged droughts and expanding wildfire trends, creating risks even for countries with strong environmental records.

For the nation, which continues to absorb more carbon than it emits, these global shifts signal emerging vulnerabilities. The country’s extensive forests sequester millions of tonnes of carbon each year and form the basis of its carbon negative status. However, intensifying climate stress is beginning to undermine these natural systems. Erratic monsoon behaviour, rising temperatures and increasing pest outbreaks are affecting forest health, while soil degradation and unstable slopes are limiting natural regeneration.

Scientists monitoring global climate trends note that forests worldwide are absorbing less carbon as heatwaves and long dry spells increase tree mortality. Similar patterns are now visible across Bhutan, where changing rainfall and warming temperatures are altering vegetation zones and placing added strain on ecosystems. The monsoon, once predictable, is now delivering heavier downpours in shorter periods. These events trigger landslides and soil erosion that damage young forests and slow recovery in areas already weakened.

Mid altitude regions such as Chukha and Tsirang are facing particular pressure. Fluctuating soil moisture and the increasing instability of slopes are contributing to the expansion of degraded forest patches, reducing overall forest productivity. As forest growth slows, the strength of the country’s most important natural carbon sink is also weakening.

The WMO report highlights that land ecosystems and oceans have absorbed about half of global emissions since 1960. However, these reservoirs are showing signs of saturation. If this global trend continues, the country’s forests could face reduced sequestration capacity in the coming decades. A weakening sink would affect the country’s ability to maintain carbon neutrality, contribute effectively to carbon markets and support global climate goals.

The country’s more than 70 percent forest cover has long provided a buffer against rising global temperatures. However, increasing heat is intensifying forest fire risk, while new pests are spreading into areas already stressed by shifting weather patterns. Lower soil moisture due to inconsistent monsoon cycles is slowing forest regeneration and exposing forest stands to long term vulnerability. These combined pressures are creating new uncertainties for the ecological foundation of the country’s carbon negative identity.

Officials acknowledge the scale of the emerging challenges. While the country continues to offset more emissions than it produces, the Ministry of Energy, Nature and Resources says that international climate trends are intensifying domestic pressures. “Bhutan remains committed to carbon neutrality, but rising global emissions and climate impacts mean that resilience and adaptation must advance alongside mitigation,” the ministry said.

With extreme weather becoming more frequent and seasonal transitions less predictable, the government has increased its focus on adaptation. The National Adaptation Plan 2023 identifies seven priority sectors that are vulnerable to climate impacts and presents detailed strategies to strengthen resilience. These include securing water resources, improving climate smart agriculture, expanding disaster risk management and reinforcing the stability of forest ecosystems.

Bhutan has consistently supported global emission reductions and pushed for increased financial support for adaptation, especially for mountainous and landlocked developing countries. National interventions now show a stronger shift toward integrating climate resilience into long term development plans. Strengthening forest governance, improving land management and advancing ecosystem restoration are becoming central to protecting the country’s natural carbon sink.

Economic expansion remains an added complication. The 21st Century Economic Roadmap aims to increase GDP tenfold by 2050 and is expected to raise emissions across agriculture, tourism, transport, hydropower, manufacturing and emerging industries. Rising demand for timber, construction materials and land could increase pressure on forests without strong regulatory safeguards. The updated Long Term Low Greenhouse Gas and Climate Resilient Development Strategy 2025 projects that Bhutan will remain carbon neutral until about 2045. However, under a business as usual scenario emissions may exceed sequestration as economic activity grows and climate stress weakens forest systems.

To address these risks, the government is updating Low Emission Development Strategies for transport, industry, human settlements and agrifood systems. These revisions aim to ensure that economic growth does not compromise the constitutional mandate to maintain at least 60 percent forest cover. Rising climate related forest degradation, however, is creating new uncertainties for long term carbon sink stability.

Bhutan is also strengthening transparency in its climate reporting. Under the Paris Agreement, countries must submit Biennial Transparency Reports every two years. Bhutan submitted its first report in 2024 and will submit the next in 2026. These inventories track emissions, carbon sink performance and the overall national carbon balance. “Bhutan’s greenhouse gas inventory will be updated every two years, allowing the country to track emissions and sink trends as climate pressures and development demands evolve,” the MoENR said.

Forests remain the country’s most important climate asset. However, as temperatures rise and ecosystems experience growing strain, maintaining carbon neutrality beyond the next two decades will require sustained forest protection, stronger land governance and climate informed economic planning. The country’s carbon shield remains intact for now, but global forces weakening natural sinks are tightening. The coming years will test whether strong governance and sustainable development can preserve the environmental legacy that has positioned the country as a global climate leader.