𝐃𝐞𝐩𝐮𝐭𝐲 𝐂𝐡𝐢𝐞𝐟 𝐔𝐫𝐠𝐞𝐬 𝐏𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜 𝐕𝐢𝐠𝐢𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐀𝐬 𝐂𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐎𝐮𝐭𝐥𝐨𝐨𝐤 𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐮𝐦 𝐇𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬 𝐑𝐢𝐬𝐤𝐬 𝐀𝐧𝐝 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬

…𝒐𝒇𝒇𝒊𝒄𝒊𝒂𝒍𝒔 𝒂𝒅𝒗𝒊𝒔𝒆 𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒎𝒖𝒏𝒊𝒕𝒊𝒆𝒔 𝒊𝒏 𝒗𝒖𝒍𝒏𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒃𝒍𝒆 𝒂𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒔 𝒕𝒐 𝒔𝒕𝒂𝒚 𝒂𝒍𝒆𝒓𝒕 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒇𝒐𝒍𝒍𝒐𝒘 𝒘𝒆𝒂𝒕𝒉𝒆𝒓 𝒖𝒑𝒅𝒂𝒕𝒆𝒔

By Kezang Choden

The National Center for Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM) recently conducted the eleventh session of the National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF-11), focusing on climate services and the outlook for the summer monsoon season from June to September 2025. The forum aimed to highlight the importance of climate services and to share seasonal forecasts of precipitation and temperature with key stakeholders for better planning and preparedness.

The session combined scientific data with traditional weather predictions to offer a comprehensive view of the upcoming monsoon season. This integrated approach broadened understanding by bringing together modern climate science and indigenous knowledge.

Ugyen Chophel, Deputy Chief of the NCHM, announced that temperatures are expected to be slightly above normal during this year’s monsoon, while rainfall is likely to remain within the normal range. He said the onset of the monsoon is expected in the first week of June. “The public should stay updated with daily weather forecasts and remain prepared throughout the monsoon season,” he advised.

Looking ahead, Ugyen Chophel noted that both maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to increase until the year 2100. “The rise in night temperatures is expected to be higher than that of daytime temperatures. This trend may increase the risk of heat wave-like conditions and accelerate glacier melting,” he explained. Regarding future rainfall, he said there may be increased precipitation in the northern, western, northwestern and southwestern regions, which could lead to higher risks of floods and related events over time.

The Deputy Chief also reported that 2024 was the warmest year globally, with an annual average maximum temperature of 23.31 degrees Celsius and an average minimum of 12.51 degrees Celsius. The total accumulated rainfall for the year was 1,802.37 millimeters.

Traditional perspectives on weather prediction were shared by Lopen Karma Dhendup from Pangrizampa College of Astrology. He emphasized that astrology still provides methods to forecast weather patterns and identify auspicious days. “There are several traditional techniques used to predict daily weather conditions and seasonal changes,” he said. According to Lopen Karma Dhendup, this year is expected to bring strong winds and rainfall, particularly at higher altitudes. He also warned of a rise in fire incidents and illnesses affecting domestic animals. He affirmed his commitment to traditional predictions alongside NCHM reports, reflecting Bhutan’s coexistence of modern science and age-old wisdom.

As the country prepares for the monsoon, the Deputy Chief issued a strong advisory urging communities in flood and landslide-prone areas to stay vigilant and take necessary precautions. “People must avoid going near riverbanks during heavy rains as strong currents and sudden water surges can be dangerous,” he cautioned. He also stressed the importance of conducting thorough pre-monsoon inspections and called on agencies and local authorities to assess the condition of roads, drainage systems and infrastructure before the rains intensify. These measures are crucial to reducing risks and ensuring public safety.

In addition to infrastructure readiness, the Deputy Chief encouraged the public to follow weather updates regularly. “Being informed by daily forecasts enables people to make timely decisions during emergencies,” he said. He also emphasized the importance of keeping emergency contact numbers accessible. “Knowing whom to call during a disaster can save lives. Every household should have access to emergency contacts to ensure a swift response when needed,” he added. The public was reminded to call the toll-free number 1030 in emergencies.

With the monsoon season bringing both relief and risk, the Deputy Chief underlined the shared responsibility of the public and authorities to remain cautious and proactive.