𝐖𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐓𝐨𝐨𝐥𝐬 𝐒𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭 𝐅𝐚𝐫𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐅𝐚𝐜𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐂𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐂𝐡𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐬

…𝒎𝒐𝒃𝒊𝒍𝒆 𝒂𝒑𝒑𝒍𝒊𝒄𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒔 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒇𝒐𝒓𝒆𝒄𝒂𝒔𝒕 𝒔𝒆𝒓𝒗𝒊𝒄𝒆𝒔 𝒐𝒇𝒇𝒆𝒓 𝒕𝒊𝒎𝒆𝒍𝒚 𝒊𝒏𝒇𝒐𝒓𝒎𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒕𝒐 𝒊𝒎𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒗𝒆 𝒇𝒂𝒓𝒎 𝒅𝒆𝒄𝒊𝒔𝒊𝒐𝒏𝒔

By Sonam Choden and Yeshi Dolma

According to a World Bank report, nearly 150,000 Bhutanese remain vulnerable to falling into poverty due to economic or climate-related shocks. As the country faces increasingly frequent natural disasters, including floods, landslides, and glacial lake outburst floods, building climate resilience has become a growing priority. Among the sectors most affected is agriculture, which employs the largest share of the population. As climate change increasingly influences farming, weather forecasting tools are emerging as important assets for resilience and productivity.

griculture remains the primary source of employment in Bhutan, with 41 out of every 100 employed individuals working in this sector. Despite its role in livelihoods, agriculture contributes relatively little to Bhutan’s GDP. “This discrepancy highlights a critical issue in Bhutan’s economic structure,” said Kunzang Lhamu, Director General of the Department of Employment and Entrepreneurship under the Ministry of Industry, Commerce and Employment. “While many people depend on agriculture for employment, its economic returns remain disproportionately low. This imbalance emphasizes the urgent need for targeted investments and reforms aimed at enhancing the productivity and value generation of the agricultural sector, which we are working on.”

Despite government support to increase domestic food production, the agriculture sector recorded a decline in crop output. Though modest growth in livestock, forestry, and logging was observed, overall crop yields declined by 0.7 percent. Contributing factors included climate change, shifts in land use, and wildlife-related crop damage. Under the 13th Five-Year Plan, the government has provided support through farm roads, seed and fertilizer inputs, price guarantees to producers, and consumer subsidies.

To address structural gaps, public spending is being repurposed toward modernization and value addition in the agrifood system. Between FY10/11 and FY20/21, most agricultural expenditure was directed to infrastructure, particularly farm roads (34 percent). Payments to consumers, such as cash transfers and school feeding programs, accounted for 26 percent, while payments to producers made up 8 percent. Only 4 percent of spending went to research and development, and 6 percent to extension services.

Experts say limited integration into global value chains reflects the low investment in research and value chain development. Spending on services such as food safety certification, value addition, marketing, and cold storage infrastructure remains low at 6 percent. These areas are considered essential to improving export potential and developing a commercially viable agrifood sector.

Farmers are already feeling the effects of climate change. “The dry season is longer and harsher now,” said Kaka, a farmer from Punakha. “The intense sun dries the soil, makes it difficult to work, and our harvests are becoming unpredictable. We don’t know anymore when the rains will come.”

In response, Bhutan is turning to digital and forecasting tools to help farmers plan ahead. These include Decision Support Systems (DSS), early warning systems, agrometeorological advisories, and mobile-based applications that provide timely and localized guidance. By analyzing meteorological and agricultural data, these tools offer tailored advice, from when to sow or irrigate to how to manage risks from extreme weather.

A spokesperson from the Department of Agriculture noted that these tools offer an opportunity to reduce climate-related risks. “By leveraging tools such as Decision Support Systems (DSS), early warning systems, mobile applications, and agrometeorological advisories, we can improve planning, preparedness, and response. These tools empower farmers and stakeholders to act proactively, helping build a food-secure and climate-resilient Bhutan,” she said.
Weather forecasting is conducted by the National Center for Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM), with forecasts available up to three days in advance. Forecast products are shared through media, social media, and targeted groups. The Department of Agriculture (DOA) disseminates this information through extension officers, the Agromet Decision Support System, and a mobile application. These channels aim to make forecast information more accessible and practical for farming communities.

The collaboration between meteorological services and agriculture agencies is intended to translate forecasts into actionable steps. For farmers affected by erratic weather patterns and shifting growing seasons, even a few days’ notice can improve decision-making and reduce losses.

However, broad access to these technologies requires better coordination. Continued collaboration between the NCHM, extension officers, and farming communities is considered vital to ensure that forecasts are both accessible and understandable. Strengthening capacity and improving localized forecasting are seen as necessary to make these tools more effective.

Access to finance remains another major hurdle. Hem Kumar Acharya, Director of Banking Operations at Bhutan National Bank, said the bank has very minimal exposure to agriculture, under one percent, while other banks such as Bhutan Development Bank Limited (BDBL) have higher exposure. “The agriculture sector is burdened with a high level of non-performing loans (NPLs), well above the desired threshold of 5 percent. Lending further in agriculture doesn’t make financial sense when existing loans are already defaulting-essentially, it would mean putting more money into a sector where returns are uncertain,” he said. He added that fragmented landholdings, unpredictable market demand, and unrealistic price expectations make lending in the sector particularly risky.

Rinchen Dorji, Head of the Postgraduate Program at the College of Business Studies, emphasized the sector’s potential. “Agriculture, if strategically supported, can play a pivotal role in job creation and inclusive economic growth,” he said.
As Bhutan focuses on economic transformation, strengthening agriculture through accurate forecasting, better-targeted investments, and coordinated planning is being viewed as key to a more resilient and productive future.

The Agrometeorology Program under the Department of Agriculture is responsible for providing weather-based crop advisories. These advisories are developed using weather forecasts from the NCHM and crop-specific information relevant to Bhutan. The goal is to increase productivity by taking advantage of favorable weather conditions and to reduce crop losses during adverse weather events. Weekly crop advisories are shared during critical growing stages through various platforms, including a WhatsApp group for daily forecasts, emails, mobile applications, and extension officers. The Agromet Decision Support System supports the advisory process.

Currently, the services focus on priority crops in selected gewogs within pilot dzongkhags. The crops include rice, maize, potato, apple, citrus, and chilli, depending on the region where they are cultivated, such as Paro, Punakha, Wangdue Phodrang, Mongar, Sarpang, Tsirang, and Dagana, with support from the World Bank and the Adaptation Fund.