𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐄𝐟𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐬 𝐋𝐞𝐚𝐝 𝐓𝐨 𝐑𝐢𝐬𝐞 𝐈𝐧 𝐒𝐧𝐨𝐰 𝐋𝐞𝐨𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐝 𝐍𝐮𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐃𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐞 𝐖𝐚𝐫𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐓𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐬

…𝒓𝒊𝒔𝒊𝒏𝒈 𝒕𝒆𝒎𝒑𝒆𝒓𝒂𝒕𝒖𝒓𝒆𝒔 𝒂𝒏𝒅 𝒉𝒂𝒃𝒊𝒕𝒂𝒕 𝒇𝒓𝒂𝒈𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒕𝒉𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒕𝒆𝒏 𝒍𝒐𝒏𝒈-𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒎 𝒔𝒏𝒐𝒘 𝒍𝒆𝒐𝒑𝒂𝒓𝒅 𝒗𝒊𝒂𝒃𝒊𝒍𝒊𝒕𝒚

By Sonam Choden

Bhutan has recorded a notable increase in its snow leopard (Panthera uncia) population, rising from 96 individuals in 2016 to 134 in 2023. This represents a 39.5 percent growth, according to the 2022–2023 National Snow Leopard Survey. Despite this encouraging trend, the long-term sustainability of the species remains uncertain due to climate-related challenges.

The National Center for Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM) projects that Bhutan’s temperature will increase by approximately 2 to 3 degrees Celsius by 2050. Phub Dorji, Senior Forestry Officer at the Nature Conservation Division, explained, “Such warming is expected to drive the upward migration of tree lines, resulting in a reduction and fragmentation of alpine habitats, which currently constitute only 8 to 10 percent of the country’s land area.” This contraction of high-altitude ecosystems could confine snow leopards to smaller, isolated habitat patches, increasing competition among individuals and raising the risk of genetic isolation. These pressures make it difficult to assess the species’ long-term viability under future climate scenarios and highlight the fragility of snow leopard habitat even as population numbers rise.

NCHM projections under the moderate RCP 4.5 emissions scenario indicate Bhutan’s annual mean temperature will increase between 0.8 and 1.6 degrees Celsius from 2021 to 2050. Warming is expected to intensify toward the end of the century, with increases between 1.6 and 2.8 degrees Celsius projected from 2070 to 2099. Seasonal temperature rises are estimated between 0.9 and 1.8 degrees Celsius for 2021 to 2050, increasing further to 1.8 to 2.8 degrees by century’s end. The most significant warming is predicted during the March to May and December to February seasons. Temperature increases are expected across Bhutan but will be more pronounced in the highland regions.

Under the high-emissions RCP 8.5 scenario, annual mean temperatures are projected to rise between 0.8 and 2.0 degrees Celsius by 2050, with rises exceeding 2.8 degrees Celsius expected between 2070 and 2099. Seasonal temperature increases under this scenario are similar for 2021 to 2050 but could reach between 3.2 and 5.6 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. These projections underscore the potential for significant climatic warming across Bhutan, particularly under high-emission trajectories, with important implications for ecosystems and climate-sensitive sectors.

Phub Dorji said, “The expansion of forest into alpine zones is contributing to the fragmentation of open landscapes that are critical for snow leopard hunting and movement.” This change confines snow leopards to increasingly smaller and isolated habitat patches, intensifying competition with other predators. “Over time, such spatial constraints may lead to reduced prey availability and restricted gene flow, potentially resulting in a decline in genetic diversity,” he added. The replacement of grassland ecosystems with forests may also disrupt existing prey populations and destabilize food webs, threatening alpine ecosystem integrity. To address this, conservation efforts now include managing treeline advancement through scientifically informed interventions such as controlled burns and regulated grazing.

Phub noted that climate-driven shifts in prey distribution may push snow leopards into marginal habitats, increasing their proximity to human settlements and livestock. As wild prey populations decline or move to more suitable areas, snow leopards may prey more on domestic animals like yaks and horses. This could worsen human-wildlife conflict and lead to retaliatory killings by herders, which pose a threat to conservation efforts and local support in Bhutan’s northern pastoral communities. To mitigate this, the Department of Forests and Park Services has introduced portable, solar-powered corral fencing systems aimed at reducing livestock losses and easing herders’ labor.

Bhutan’s current conservation infrastructure, including protected areas and anti-poaching networks, is strong but has not yet fully adapted to climate-related challenges. By 2050, gaps are expected in habitat monitoring technologies and dedicated funding for climate-focused interventions. “Enhancing climate resilience will require expanding real-time GPS-based wildlife tracking, integrating climate projection data into protected area management, promoting community stewardship, and training field staff in adaptation strategies,” Phub said. In response, Bhutan has developed a Snow Leopard Conservation Action Plan that incorporates climate-resilient measures to guide future efforts.

Focusing conservation on low-elevation habitats may prove ineffective as climate change makes these areas unsuitable for snow leopards. This could lead to misallocation of resources and neglect of genetically important subpopulations in more resilient zones. For long-term success, population data should be combined with habitat quality assessments and identification of potential climate refugia to enable targeted, adaptive management.

Phub highlighted environmental safeguards in the Lunana road project to reduce impacts on snow leopard habitat and alpine ecosystems. These include elevated wildlife crossings to maintain connectivity, restricted construction zones, and slope stabilization to prevent erosion. The Forest and Nature Conservation Act of Bhutan (2023) requires avoiding core wildlife habitats and mandates reforestation offsets for affected areas. Continuous monitoring through the Spatial Monitoring and Reporting Tool (SMART) helps ensure compliance. Still, vigilance is necessary to prevent illegal logging and unregulated road expansion after construction.

The Nature Conservation Division aligns World Wildlife Fund’s infrastructure mitigation guidelines with NCHM climate projections. By combining spatial data on snow leopard habitats with forest encroachment and precipitation projections, the Division identifies high-risk zones where development must be restricted. This approach helps ensure that infrastructure projects such as roads and energy developments avoid critical climate refugia.

Bhutan applies ecological “shadow pricing” in infrastructure planning, rerouting roads to avoid projected climate refugia identified using satellite data on snow cover and vegetation dynamics. In climate-sensitive corridors, highway designs include wildlife underpasses and artificial ledges to facilitate safe animal movement and reduce habitat fragmentation. Temperature projections are also integrated into slope engineering to mitigate landslide risks related to infrastructure development.

Affected areas undergo ecological restoration, including slope stabilization with deep-rooted vegetation to reduce soil erosion and promote slope integrity. These efforts also create microhabitats supporting prey species critical to snow leopard survival. Additionally, restoration acts as climate adaptation by improving water retention and providing localized cooling in degraded alpine ecosystems.

A recent World Wildlife Fund report, Guiding the Future of Linear Infrastructure Development in Snow Leopard Landscapes (July 2025), warns that unchecked development across Asia’s mountains risks habitat fragmentation and biodiversity loss. The report outlines strategies to protect snow leopard ranges amid expanding road networks, transmission lines, and hydropower projects.

While Bhutan’s snow leopard population shows encouraging growth, its long-term survival is threatened by accelerating climate change and infrastructure pressures. Rising temperatures, habitat fragmentation, and changing prey dynamics may undermine conservation gains. Addressing these challenges requires integrated, climate-informed strategies that align ecological resilience with development planning. Bhutan’s proactive measures, including ecological shadow pricing, habitat restoration, and conflict mitigation, offer a promising model for climate-adaptive conservation. However, sustained investment in monitoring, community involvement, and adaptive management will be essential to protect snow leopards in Bhutan’s rapidly changing Himalayan landscape.